Story by Andreas Exarheas|RigZone.com|The Iranian President’s death is unlikely to affect relations with Israel since hardliners are almost certain to remain in control in Tehran.
That is according to Doug Bandow, a Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute, who told Rigzone that “power lines will shift, but reformers are unlikely to gain ground”.
When asked if the death will affect the Iranian, and global, oil and gas industry, Bandow said he doesn’t expect any change regarding Iranian energy production.
“Only the choice of someone notably more moderate might lead to an effort to reach a more productive modus vivendi with the U.S., including a relaxation of sanctions,” Bandow told Rigzone.
“However, again, that seems very unlikely, especially in an election year in America with President Joe Biden under fire from Israel’s most ardent supporters,” he added.
Michael Rubin, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told Rigzone that Ebrahim Raisi’s death will not affect the Iran-Israel conflict.
“Iran may try to blame Israel, but it’s not Israel’s style to take out heads of state,” he said.
“That said, Iranian leaders can’t resist a good conspiracy. When the supreme leader sneezes, it must be Israeli biological warfare to blame,” he added.
Rubin also told Rigzone that the death would not affect the oil and gas sector directly.
“[Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei appointed the council … as per the 1989 constitution, and so there will be a new president and he will, like Raisi, be a placeholder,” he added.
“That said, celebrations of Raisi’s death inside Iran are a dry run for what might happen when the 85-year-old supreme leader dies. The chaos that follows Khamenei’s death will have a serious impact, especially if Iranian labor unrest follows,” he warned.
Benjamin Zycher, another Senior Fellow at the AEI, said Raisi’s death would not affect the Iran-Israel conflict “as long as the Islamic regime is in power”.
“Its hatred of Israel, America, and the West is ideological,” he added.
Asked if it would affect the Iranian, and global, oil and gas industry, Zycher simply replied, “no”.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, and co-director of the Middle East Energy Roundtable, told Rigzone his assessment is that the death of the Iranian President is unlikely to alter the trajectory of Israel-Iran tensions, “particularly as the Iranian authorities appear to accept that there was no foul play in the helicopter crash and have not sought to blame an external party”.
“The duality of decision-making in Iran between the government and the clerical institutions should absorb any disruption from Raisi’s sudden death, and I would expect this to be the case for Iran’s oil and gas sector as well,” he added.
“If anything, the expressions of sympathy and support for Iran from the Gulf States may contribute to a further lowering of tension in the immediate region,” he continued.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth – Director, Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment, and The Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in Energy and Environmental Policy, at the Heritage Foundation – told Rigzone that Iranian oil policy is unlikely to change with the death of President Raisi.
“There will be a new election shortly and the candidate will be picked by Iran’s Supreme Leader to conform to his policies,” Furchgott-Roth added.
“Dissent and revolution are not allowed. In fact, oil prices are down slightly today [Monday], suggesting that President Raisi’s death will not result in a cutback in Iranian oil production,” the Heritage Foundation representative continued.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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