Story by Andreas Exarheas| RigZone.com | In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for both 2024 and 2025.
According to that STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $76.91 per barrel this year and $73.13 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in September, projected that the WTI spot price would average $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025. Both STEOs put the 2023 WTI spot price average at $77.58 per barrel.
In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price would be $71.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $73.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $74.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $73.17 per barrel in the third quarter, and $71.22 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s September STEO projected that the WTI spot price would average $77.64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $79.02 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $80.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters of next year, and $78.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Head of Commodities Research Paul Horsnell late Tuesday revealed that the company is projecting that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $84 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $86 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $89 per barrel in the second quarter, $92 per barrel in the third quarter, and $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team last week showed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI crude price to average $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The survey showed that the average response executives from 134 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they forecast the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $72.66 per barrel. When asked where they forecast WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years, executives from 119 oil and gas firms gave a mean response of $73 per barrel for the six-month mark, $76 per barrel for the year mark, $81 per barrel for the two-year mark, and $87 per barrel for the five-year mark, the survey outlined.
In a technical analysis of WTI prices sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said, “from a technical perspective, crude oil prices are facing increasing pressures as markets shake off the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and supply appears to be abundant”.
“To regain momentum, the price needs to surpass the pivotal level at $71.50 with a daily close, which would provide an opportunity to test the level of $75.13, a significant hurdle,” Gule added.
“On the downside, the support level at $67.12 should be monitored; if it is breached, the market could decline to the lowest level of 2024 at $64.75, followed by $64.38,” Gule warned.
In the analysis, Gule stated that the oil market is currently undergoing a sideways consolidation phase between $78.00 and $64.00, with the overall outlook leaning towards a neutral to bearish sentiment.
“Momentum indicators suggest a near-term corrective upward move that could reach $75.00 and $78.00 in the medium term, although the price remains below the 200-day simple moving average at $75.37,” Gule added.
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