❄️ Over 12k flights delayed yesterday due to winter storm
Our long ...
Our long Thanksgiving travel nightmare is not yet over. FlightAware reported 12,008 delays into or out of the United States yesterday, as well as 977 cancellations into or out of the US, mostly due to a major winter storm that has impacted the Midwest, the western Great Lakes, and parts of the East Coast (which will get hit with another storm today and tomorrow). According to the National Weather Service, affected areas received six to 12 inches of snow and endured gusty winds and other hazardous travel conditions. The FAA reported that the airports of Salt Lake City, Minneapolis, Rochester, BWI, and Ronald Reagan all had to deice planes. Airlines for America had predicted that a record-breaking 31 million passengers would fly for the Thanksgiving holiday, with 3.4 million expected to pass through the airports yesterday, before the weather disruptions.
After a record-setting Black Friday, US shoppers are poised to break...
After a record-setting Black Friday, US shoppers are poised to break more records today. It’s the biggest online shopping day of the year, and the results will offer a window into the state of the US consumer. Additional data will come in the form of earnings reports this week. American Eagle delivers results on Tuesday, followed by Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Macy’s on Wednesday. Then, Kroger, Ulta, and Dollar General report earnings on Thursday, and Victoria’s Secret reports on Friday. Preliminary consumer sentiment data will also be released by the University of Michigan on Friday.
Big week for football in America: The draw for the...
Big week for football in America: The draw for the upcoming World Cup—hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico—will take place on Friday. Then, the match times and venues will be announced on Saturday. Elsewhere in the soccer world, Lionel Messi’s never-ending quest to add to his trophy case continues in South Florida on Saturday, when Messi’s Inter Miami hosts Vancouver in the MLS Cup final. The other kind of football (the one with the pigskin) is also heating up this weekend, with some of the nation’s top college teams hoping they can make it out of their conference championships with their playoff hopes still alive.
Authorities in Hong Kong continued to arrest suspects in a corruption probe following a devastating fire in a residential apartment complex on Nov. 26 that killed at least 146 people.
U.S. Crude Hits a Record While Key Export Data Goes Dark
U.S. oil production hit another record in September,...
U.S. oil production hit another record in September, but the bigger story in this month’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is what isn’t in the report: actual export data. Because the U.S. Census Bureau couldn’t release September trade figures during a funding lapse, the EIA had no choice but to recycle August’s export numbers and paste them into September’s balance sheet. That one missing piece ripples through nearly everything analysts try to read from the monthly series — from product supplied to implied demand to net imports. In other words, September’s “demand” number is effectively a placeholder until Census provides new data.
The production side, at least, is real. U.S. crude output in September edged up by 44,000 bpd to 13.84 million bpd — a fresh high and yet another reminder that weak prices haven’t slowed the machine much. New Mexico set another record at 2.351 million bpd, and the Gulf of Mexico climbed to just under 2 million bpd, the strongest since before the pandemic. The longer-cycle offshore projects are now doing more of the heavy lifting as the Permian approaches its comfort ceiling.
Normally, the PSM would help sort out the noise from weekly data, but with exports frozen in amber, September’s disposition tables are something close to a shrug. Product supplied will look artificially subdued, adjustments will look bigger than they should, and net imports won’t tell you much of anything. EIA says it will republish the month once Census delivers the real figures.
It's the worst possible time for the EIA to be missing export data. The market is already obsessed with the oversupply narrative. From OPEC+ arguing about baselines, to JPMorgan warnings, from U.S. shale flattening but the Gulf filling the gap, to IEA glut forecasts. The demand picture simply isn't real. Analysts will have to wait another cycle for the number that matters most: how much of that record production actually left the country.
In its annual Winter Outlook, the American Gas Association...
In its annual Winter Outlook, the American Gas Association sees a continuation of last year’s “La Niña” weather pattern signaling a colder-than-average winter. But consumers aren’t expected to see higher heating costs. In fact, the association expects natural gas bills to be 8% lower than the higher prices seen several years ago.
That’s due, in part, to not only record demand, but record natural gas production, according to the AGA. There has also been a 16% increase in technically recoverable natural gas resources.
“Demand for natural gas has surged, and increased production, energy efficiency gains, and robust domestic storage have allowed the industry to keep pace, setting the stage for continued affordability and reliability for American consumers,” said Richard Meyer, AGA’s vice president of energy markets, analysis, and standards, in a statement.
Only one in 650 natural gas customers is expected to experience a planned or unplanned natural gas outage in any given year, according to the association.
