Goldman Sachs says a drop in oil prices could significantly impact production growth outside the OPEC+ alliance, especially if Brent crude falls below $70 per barrel. According to a report released Monday, the Wall Street giant estimates that for every $10 per barrel decline in Brent prices above $70, non-OPEC+ output growth would shrink by around 300,000 barrels per day over the course of a year.
Looking ahead to 2026, the bank forecasts non-OPEC+ supply growth will decline from 1.05 million barrels per day to 600,000 if Brent averages $60 per barrel. A further slide to $50 could push supply growth down another 100,000 barrels per day. In short, falling prices don’t just affect profits—they could also tighten future supply.
But there’s a bit of a feedback loop here. These supply cuts, Goldman notes, would likely trigger price support, lifting Brent by $5 to $13 per barrel depending on how steep the production hit is. That, they say, is why they still see a “soft floor” for Brent prices in the mid-$60s.
U.S. shale production is particularly sensitive to price swings. Goldman estimates that if Brent is above $70 and prices drop by $10, U.S. shale output growth would dip by 200,000 barrels per day. That impact more than doubles—to around 500,000 barrels per day—if Brent falls into the $50 to $70 range. If it drops below $30, the bank expects more dramatic pullbacks, including well shut-ins as operations become economically unfeasible.
Outside of the U.S., non-OPEC+ producers show a more moderate but still noticeable response. When Brent is above $60, Goldman expects output to drop by 100,000 barrels per day for every $10 price dip. That loss doubles as prices fall into the $40 to $60 range and could lead to broader shutdowns if Brent approaches the breakeven costs for many producers.
In short, while falling oil prices might sound like good news for consumers, they could set the stage for future supply squeezes—especially from producers not part of the OPEC+ pact.
