HOUSTON, — U.S. crude production will soar to a record high this year before rising even more in 2019, according to a government forecast published Tuesday.
Nationwide output will average 10.85 million barrels a day next year and 10.27 million this year, both surpassing the prior record of 9.6 million pumped in 1970, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which included the first estimates for 2019.
Production will top 11 million barrels a day in November 2019, according to the estimate.
The growth of North American shale production, which caused an estimated 5 percent increase in U.S. crude output in 2017, has rocked the oil industry in the past few years, spurring OPEC and other traditional producers to cut output to trim global inventories.
“Led by U.S. production, particularly the Permian Basin, and now new oil sands projects in Canada, non-OPEC production is forecast to continue growing through the end of 2019,” John Conti, the EIA’s acting administrator, said in a statement. “We expect to see growth near 2 million barrels per day in 2018 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2019.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will average 55.33 U.S. dollars a barrel this year, the EIA said, up from last month’s estimate of 52.77 dollars, and 57.43 dollars in 2019. The global benchmark Brent is forecast to average 59.74 dollars in 2018, up from 57.26 dollars estimated in December, and 61.43 dollars in 2019.
The EIA increased its estimates for global production and demand in 2018. Output is seen at 100.34 million barrels a day, up from 100.01 million previously, with demand at 100.11 million, compared with 99.96 million.
Compiled and Published by GIB KNIGHT
Gib Knight is a private oil and gas investor and consultant, providing clients advanced analytics and building innovative visual business intelligence solutions to visualize the results, across a broad spectrum of regulatory filings and production data in Oklahoma and Texas. He is the founder of OklahomaMinerals.com, an online resource designed for mineral owners in Oklahoma.