Story by Andreas Exarheas| RigZone.com | The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025 in its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week.
The EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $83.78 per barrel this year and $82.48 per barrel next year, according to the report, which projected that the commodity will average $85.30 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $86.84 per barrel in the third quarter, and $85.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of this year, the WTI spot price averaged $77.50 per barrel, the STEO showed.
In 2025, the EIA expects the WTI spot price to average $83.84 per barrel in the first quarter, $82.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $81.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the STEO.
The EIA forecast in its previous March STEO that the WTI spot price would average $77.08 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $83.80 per barrel in the second quarter, $84.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $83.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $82.15 per barrel overall in 2024.
That STEO showed that the EIA expected the WTI spot price to come in at $82.84 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $79.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $77.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $80.30 per barrel overall in 2025.
In a research note sent to Rigzone last Monday, J.P Morgan projected that the WTI crude price will average $79 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will average $75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $80 per barrel across the second and third quarters, $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In a report sent to Rigzone last Tuesday, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future price will average $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $95 per barrel in the third quarter, $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $104 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $100 per barrel in the second quarter, and $108 per barrel in the third quarter.
Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will average $106 per barrel overall in 2025, $125 per barrel overall in 2026, and $112 per barrel overall in 2027.
In a report sent to Rigzone at the start of the month, BofA Global Research revealed that it had increased its 2024 WTI price forecast to $81 per barrel.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projected in a report sent to Rigzone at the end of March that the WTI crude price will average $82 per barrel in 2024 and $81 per barrel in 2025.
Also last month, executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expected the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
The survey showed that the average response executives from 145 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $80.11 per barrel. The low forecast in the survey was $70 per barrel, the high forecast was $120 per barrel, and the WTI price during the survey was $82.52 per barrel, the survey highlighted.
The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 135 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $79 per barrel for the six-month mark, $81 per barrel for the year mark, $83 per barrel for the two-year mark, and $90 per barrel for the five-year mark.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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