By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com | Despite Trump’s full-throttle push to “unleash” U.S. energy, Permian oil producers are keeping their foot on the brakes. At a Houston conference this week, energy executives made it clear that while production is still growing, the breakneck pace of the past decade is history.
In 2025, Permian output is expected to rise by about 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from last year’s 380,000-bpd increase. That’s a 25% slowdown, and it’s not just because of market conditions—it’s intentional.
On Thursday, Chevron’s Barbara Harrison summed up the mood to Reuters: “We still expect to see growth in the Permian, but we expect to see that moderated.” In other words, U.S. shale is no longer in “drill, baby, drill” mode. Instead of chasing volume, companies are focused on keeping costs in check and delivering returns to investors—a stark contrast to the reckless production boom of the 2010s.
Even though the U.S. remains the world’s top oil producer at 13.2 million bpd, capital discipline is the new mantra. Coterra Energy’s Shannon Flowers spoke of the irony: “The Trump administration wants lower energy prices. That’s not necessarily good for producers.”
Refiners like Delek are bracing for potential supply constraints as these producers hold back. And with Trump’s tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports looming, there’s even more uncertainty in the mix.
Bottom line: The days of unbridled U.S. shale expansion are over, oil executives say. The industry is moving cautiously, balancing supply growth with financial discipline. Trump may want a flood of new production, but Wall Street wants profits. Right now, Wall Street is winning.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
“Drill, baby, drill!” was a 2008 Republican campaign slogan first used at the 2008 Republican National Convention by former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, who was later elected Chairman of the Republican National Committee. The slogan expressed support for increased drilling for petroleum and gas as sources of additional energy and gained further prominence after it was used by Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin during the vice-presidential debate. President Donald Trump used the phrase repeatedly during his 2024 presidential campaign, including when speaking at the 2024 Republican National Convention, as well as at his 2025 inaugural address
