This summer, U.S. utilities leaned more heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation than their counterparts in China—a surprising reality that undercuts America’s claims of leading the global energy transition.
Data from the energy think tank Ember shows that over the past four months, fossil fuels made up 62.4% of electricity production in the United States. Meanwhile, China, the world’s biggest power producer and polluter, managed to keep its fossil fuel reliance slightly lower at 60.5%.
The increased dependence on fossil fuels in the U.S. came during peak power demand season, driven by air conditioning use. On the other hand, China’s dip in fossil fuel reliance was partly attributed to a prolonged economic slowdown. Regardless, the numbers reveal just how much more aggressively China has ramped up clean energy compared to the U.S., positioning itself closer to peaking its reliance on fossil fuel power.
If the U.S. fails to make swift reductions in fossil generation or substantially ramp up its clean energy output, it risks falling behind in the race for decarbonization and could lose credibility as a leader in climate action.
Around the world, power providers are advancing the energy transition by adopting a two-fold strategy: reducing fossil fuel usage and boosting clean power. In the U.S., the focus has been primarily on building out clean power generation, which has grown by roughly 16% since 2019. However, steadily increasing power demand has limited the ability of utilities to cut back on fossil fuel production.
In the first nine months of 2024, fossil fuel-fired generation in the U.S. was only down by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2019, reaching 1,967 terawatt hours (TWh). While coal-fired generation took a steep plunge—dropping 34% from 750 TWh in 2019 to 497 TWh this year—natural gas has taken over a bigger share. With coal’s share of the generation mix decreasing from 25% in 2019 to 15% today, utilities have had to make up for it by boosting gas-fired production, which increased by 20% over the same period. Natural gas now accounts for 43% of the U.S. power mix, compared to 38% in 2019.
The rise in total electricity demand—up 5.5% from 2019 to 2024—has been driven by growth in electric vehicles, data centers, and AI applications. This rising demand makes it challenging for utilities to significantly reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, even as clean energy continues to expand.
China, on the other hand, has faced an even steeper increase in power demand, with consumption surging nearly 37% since 2019. To meet that enormous need, China has scaled up both fossil fuel and clean energy production faster than any other major economy. While coal-fired electricity output has jumped 23% to a record 4,618 TWh, clean power has grown much faster, increasing 67% to reach 2,834 TWh. Thanks to this surge in renewables, nuclear, and hydro power, coal’s share of the energy mix in China has dropped below 60% for the first time—down from 66% in 2019.
The key takeaway for U.S. power producers is that the most effective way to reduce reliance on fossil fuels is to continue expanding clean generation capacity nationwide. From 2018 to 2023, U.S. clean energy capacity grew by 40%, reaching 438 gigawatts (GW). During that time, fossil fuel capacity decreased by about 4%, largely due to the shutdown of outdated coal plants.
However, China’s clean energy expansion has been even more aggressive—more than doubling since 2018. Today, China’s clean energy capacity exceeds its fossil fuel capacity by about 20%, a lead that continues to widen. In contrast, clean generation capacity in the U.S. still trails fossil capacity by roughly 35%.
If the United States truly wants to position itself as a leader in climate action and decarbonization, it needs a more ambitious clean energy development plan—one that decisively shifts the country’s energy mix away from fossil fuels and toward sustainable alternatives.
