Story Credit: By Eurasianet | An ongoing joint military exercise involving a comparatively small number of American and Armenian troops at a base in the Yerevan suburbs has caused a paroxysm of rage in the Kremlin.
The 11-day joint exercise, dubbed Eagle Partner, will run through July 24 and is intended to boost the “interoperability between the US and Armenia during peacekeeping and stability operations,” according to a report distributed by the US European Command.
It isn’t the number of troops involved that has Russian officials in a tizzy; it’s more about the timing and symbolism of the joint exercise. It is a tangible measure of Armenia’s progress in its geopolitical pivot away from Russia towards the West following Yerevan’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“You [US and Armenian troops] are at the forefront of an important and growing relationship and partnership, and our nations thank you for your personal commitment toward ensuring peace, security, and prosperity,” US Ambassador to Armenia Kristina Kvien said in remarks made at Eagle Partner’s opening ceremony on July 15.
In parallel with the exercise, Armenian media outlet Hetq reported that a resident adviser from the Pentagon will be attached to Armenia’s Ministry of Defense. The adviser’s duties and responsibilities haven’t been publicly disclosed. In addition, the US and Armenia are exploring cooperation on the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Armenia. Currently, Russia has a stranglehold on atomic power generation at the Metsamor facility, which has 12 years remaining in its life cycle.
In the history of Soviet/Russian diplomacy, the level of vitriol contained in an official statement has often been in inverse proportion to Moscow’s ability to influence its preferred outcome. In the case of Armenia’s rapid embrace of the West, as embodied in Eagle Partner, the vitriol vented by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova was up there. She painted the presence of American forces in the Caucasus in dire terms, saying the United States and NATO were intent on upsetting “the fragile balance” in the region and reigniting conflict.
“The appearance of the Americans in the South Caucasus, we have already seen this repeatedly in various parts of the world, will only fuel the conflict potential persisting in the region, and create new dividing lines, … not only dividing lines, but also hotbeds of conflict,” the official TASS news agency quoted Zakharova as saying July 18.
“Western countries are maniacally dragging Armenia into various formats of interaction in Transcaucasia,” she added.
Zakharova’s comments suggest that the Kremlin is alarmed by the rapid erosion of its influence in Armenia and concerned that a growing US strategic presence there could disrupt the development of the North-South corridor, a nascent trade network connecting Russia and Iran that has helped the Kremlin’s sanctions-busting efforts and its war effort in Ukraine. Moscow may also be concerned that the United States is seizing the initiative in fostering a durable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia has taken rapid action to strengthen security ties with the West this year, following Azerbaijan’s decisive victory in the Karabakh war in 2023. Concurrently, Yerevan has fallen out with its long-time security guarantor, Russia, amid accusations that the Kremlin failed to live up to obligations to assist Armenia in Karabakh. Shortly before Eagle Partner got underway, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Yerevan would withdraw from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.
In contrast to Zakharova’s comments about the US desire to stir up trouble in the region, US diplomats tried in mid-July to breathe new life into the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process. Meanwhile, in an interview published by Hetq, US Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya cast some shade on Russia’s peacebuilding record in the Caucasus.
Washington “sees nothing to indicate that Russia’s military presence contributes to a more peaceful and stable South Caucasus region,” Zeya said.
Russia still has apparent levers of influence in Armenia. For example, Yerevan economically depends on Russian trade and natural gas supplies. The Kremlin also maintains a military base in Gyumri that hosts a Russian brigade. But for whatever reason in 2024, the Kremlin has mostly barked, not bitten in response to Armenia’s embrace of the West. It may well be that the burdens of the Ukraine war are limiting Russia’s ability to act in the Caucasus.
Eurasianet is an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on the most important developments in the region.
