OPEC+ has confirmed that it will proceed with its planned April 2025 oil production increase, marking the first output hike since 2022. The decision follows renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged the group—especially Saudi Arabia—to help bring down oil prices. The coalition, which includes OPEC, Russia, and other allied nations, agreed to increase output by 138,000 barrels per day next month as part of a gradual rollback of production cuts implemented to stabilize global oil markets.
The announcement has already impacted oil prices, with Brent crude trading around $71 per barrel, down from recent highs above $82 in January. OPEC+ emphasized that the production increase is flexible, meaning it could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. The group is carefully balancing economic concerns, U.S. political pressure, and geopolitical uncertainties, making future adjustments possible.
Oil Prices, U.S. Policy, and Market Volatility
Oil prices have fluctuated within a $70 to $82 per barrel range over recent weeks as traders anticipate major changes to U.S. sanctions and trade policies. The market has been affected by expectations of new U.S. tariffs on China, potential changes to sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, and uncertainty surrounding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Trump’s recent policy shifts have added to the volatility. In January, oil prices surged above $82 per barrel after Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, imposed new sanctions on Russia. However, they have since declined amid speculation that Trump may broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could boost Russian oil exports. At the same time, Trump’s decision to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero and his cancellation of Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela have limited price declines.
OPEC+ sources acknowledged that these bullish and bearish factors made the April decision complex, but the group ultimately chose to move forward cautiously. The production hike is part of a measured unwinding of the 2.2 million barrels per day in cuts implemented since 2022. While the plan is set to continue in gradual monthly increases, OPEC+ will monitor the market closely and adjust as necessary to maintain stability amid political and economic uncertainties.
