In a recent Bloomberg interview, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, the former head of gas analysis at BP, discussed the shifting dynamics in global energy markets, focusing on how U.S. natural gas could be influenced by the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections. As the United States continues to expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, Corbeau painted a complex picture of what lies ahead, especially with changing policies and a potential new president in the Oval Office.
U.S. Leads in LNG Exports, But What’s Next?
The United States has solidified its position as the world leader in LNG exports, overtaking giants like Qatar and Australia. Corbeau noted that with new LNG facilities like Plaquemines and Corpus Christi coming online soon, American LNG exports are expected to double. This growth represents a key opportunity for both the U.S. and its global partners, particularly Europe, which has heavily leaned on U.S. gas following the loss of supply from Russia.
However, Corbeau highlighted that the Biden administration has been careful in approving new LNG projects, partly due to environmental concerns and a need to reassess the impact of rising LNG exports on the domestic gas market. This cautious approach aims to keep U.S. natural gas prices from skyrocketing while balancing the country’s climate goals—a stance that a new administration could either maintain or alter significantly.
Potential Policy Shifts Under New Leadership
Should Kamala Harris, currently a leading Democratic candidate, follow in Biden’s footsteps, Corbeau believes that U.S. LNG exports will continue—but likely with more strings attached. Environmental regulations, particularly around methane emissions, could become stricter, especially as the U.S. remains a signatory to the Global Methane Pledge. Methane emissions have been a major concern for policymakers both in the U.S. and abroad, given that LNG production and transportation are often linked to significant methane leaks.
Interestingly, Corbeau pointed out that while any administration can authorize LNG exports, it cannot dictate where these shipments end up. The destination ultimately comes down to market prices, and U.S. LNG, known for its flexibility, follows the money—whether that means Europe, Asia, or other regions. The Biden administration, for instance, struck a deal with the European Union to boost LNG exports amid the Russian supply cut-off, but those shipments still ultimately responded to market conditions.
The Role of Natural Gas in U.S.-Europe Relations
Europe’s reliance on American LNG has grown exponentially since the start of the war in Ukraine, which led to a dramatic drop in Russian gas supplies. Corbeau emphasized that the U.S. has stepped up as a key energy ally for Europe. However, the looming question is whether this partnership could be used as a tool of political leverage in the future. A potential Trump administration, Corbeau hinted, might consider using LNG as a bargaining chip to gain favorable outcomes in other policy areas—a tactic reminiscent of his first term.
“Trump has always been transactional in his dealings,” Corbeau observed. She predicted that if Trump returns to the presidency, he would likely put pressure on European nations to sign long-term LNG contracts with new American projects. For European countries like Germany, which have prioritized short-term contracts to keep their net-zero commitments, this could introduce tension and push them to rethink their energy strategy.
Balancing Energy Exports and Domestic Stability
Another important aspect Corbeau brought up was the need for a delicate balance between rising LNG exports and the stability of the domestic gas market. Recent moves by the Biden administration to pause new LNG project approvals were partly driven by concerns over domestic gas prices. As global demand for LNG grows, unchecked exports could lead to higher prices at home, putting pressure on American households and industries that rely on natural gas.
This balancing act becomes even more challenging with evolving environmental regulations. The Biden administration has been keen on incorporating clean energy requirements for LNG projects, like using renewable power for liquefaction processes or reducing methane leaks. If Trump were to take office again, these regulations might be relaxed—which could expedite new LNG projects but potentially harm the U.S.’s credibility on climate issues.
A Buyer’s Market on the Horizon?
Corbeau also painted a broader picture of the global LNG market, noting that it may soon become a buyer’s market. As more LNG projects come online in the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, competition will increase, which could drive down prices. For Europe, which has been grappling with high energy costs, this could be a welcome shift.
However, it all comes down to price dynamics. Corbeau stressed that U.S. LNG is all about flexibility. If European prices are high, LNG cargoes will head there. But if Asian markets offer better prices, then the shipments will divert accordingly. The true advantage of U.S. LNG lies in its ability to pivot based on global demand—a flexibility that has made it a key player in international energy security.
What Lies Ahead
Ultimately, the future of U.S. LNG exports depends heavily on both market conditions and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. Whether the U.S. continues on its current path of cautious growth, stringent environmental regulation, and strategic partnerships, or takes a more aggressive, business-first approach will shape the global energy landscape for years to come.
As the world increasingly turns to natural gas as a transitional fuel, the U.S. has a unique opportunity to lead—but it must balance its ambitions with responsibility, both at home and abroad. And as Corbeau aptly put it, “Two months is a very long time in geopolitics.” The coming election will undoubtedly have lasting ramifications for the global LNG market and for how the U.S. positions itself as an energy superpower.
View the entire interview with Anne-Sophie Corbeau HERE
